Euro 2024 group scenarios: How each team advances to the Round of 16 (2024)

France is on the cusp of continuing its remarkable qualification streak under head coach Didier Deschamps when it takes on the Netherlands at Euro 2024 on Friday.

Deschamps took over ahead of the 2012 European Championships in the wake of a disastrous performance by Les Blues in the 2010 World Cup.

Since then, his side has never been eliminated in the group stage of either a World Cup or a Euros, and looks poised to increase that run over the coming days.

A hard-fought victory over Austria gave the squad a strong start, despite concerns caused by the nose injury sustained by captain Kylian Mbappé, whose status for the Netherlands game is still uncertain.

France will progress with a win in Leipzig and could clinch first place in Group D pending other results.

Here is what every team needs to advance to the round of 16, with no one eliminated from contention to this point.

**Through games played on June 20th

GROUP SCENARIOS

The top two teams in each group will advance to the Round of 16, along with the four best third-place-finishers.

Group A

• Germany has already qualified for the Round of 16, and will win the group with a draw or win against Switzerland
• Switzerland advances with a win or draw against Germany, with a win giving them the top spot and a draw giving them second
• Switzerland can also advance with a loss and a loss or draw by Scotland
• Switzerland can also advance as runner-up with a loss and a win by Scotland if they are ahead on goal difference; it can also advance as a third place team in this scenario if they win third-place tiebreakers
• Scotland can advance and finish as runner-up if they defeat Hungary, and Switzerland, and they finish ahead of the Swiss on goal difference (discipline points would be used if goal difference is equal); if they do not have a better goal difference in this scenario, they can still advance as a third-place team if they win third-place tiebreakers
• Scotland will finish in third if they draw, with two points not being enough to qualify as a third-place team; a loss would eliminate them
• Hungary can only advance with a win over Scotland, and can only finish third at-best (would need to win tiebreakers among other third-place groups)

Group B

• Spain has won the group
• Italy will finish as runner-up with a win or draw against Croatia
• Italy cannot finish as the runner-up with a loss to Croatia
• Italy could advance as a third-place team if they lose to Croatia and Albania draws or loses to Spain, but would need to win third-place tiebreakers
• Italy will be eliminated if they lose to Croatia and Albania beats Spain
• Albania must win against Spain; can advance as runner-up if they beat Spain and Croatia beats Italy, but would need to beat Croatia on goal-difference; in this scenario, they can still advance as a third-place team as well (if they win third-place tiebreakers)
• Albania can advance with a win against Spain and a draw from Croatia against Italy, but would do so as a third-place team and would need to win third-place tiebreakers
• Croatia must win against Italy; advance as a runner-up if they defeat Italy and Albania draws or loses against Spain
• Croatia can advance as a runner-up if they defeat Italy and Albania defeats Spain, but would need to have a better goal difference as mentioned above for Albania; can still advance as a third-place team if they have worse goal difference, but would need to win third-place tiebreakers as mentioned above

Group C

• England will advance with a win or draw against Slovenia, and will win the group with a victory
• England can also win the group with a draw against Slovenia if Denmark loses to Serbia; if England draws with Slovenia and Denmark defeats Serbia, goal difference will come into play
• England cannot win the group with a loss to Slovenia, but would still finish second if they lose and Denmark draws against Serbia
• England could advance as a third-place team if they lose to Slovenia and Denmark beats Serbia, but would need to win third-place tiebreakers
• England could advance as the group runner-up with a loss to Slovenia and a Serbia win against Denmark
• Denmark could win the group if they defeat Serbia and Slovenia defeats England, but they would have to beat Slovenia on goal difference (then Slovenia is runner-up)
• Denmark could win the group if they defeat Serbia and England draws with Slovenia, but they would have to beat England on goal difference
• Denmark could advance as the runner-up if they defeat Serbia and England defeats Slovenia
• Denmark could advance as the runner-up if they draw against Serbia and Slovenia draws with England, but would have to more goals scored; in this scenario, if they have the same number of goals scored, discipline points would come into play (then qualifier rankings if disciple points are equal)
• Denmark could advance with a draw against Serbia and if Slovenia defeats England, but would do so as a third-place team and would need to to win third-place tiebreakers
• Denmark would be in third if they lose to Serbia and England defeats Slovenia, but two points would not be enough to qualify as a third-place team
• Slovenia would advance with a win over England
• Slovenia would advance as runner-up with a draw against England and if Denmark draws with Serbia, but would need to win the tiebreakers mentioned above for Denmark in this scenario
• Slovenia would not finish in the top two if they lose to England, and two points would not be enough to qualify as a third-place team
• Serbia has to defeat Denmark; could advance as runner-up with win over Denmark along with an England win or draw against Slovenia
• Serbia can advance as a third-place team if they defeat Denmark and England loses to Slovenia, but they would have to win third-place tiebreakers

Group D

• Netherlands advances with a win over France, and will win the group if Poland wins or draws with Austria
• France advances with a win over Netherlands, and will win the group if Austria wins or draw with Poland
• Poland will not finish in the top two if they lose to Austria and France wins or draws against Netherlands
• Austria will not finish in the top two if they lose to Poland and Netherlands wins or draws against France

Group E

• Romania advances with a win over Belgium, and will secure a top two finish if Slovakia wins or draws against Ukraine
• Slovakia advances with a win over Ukraine, and will secure a top two finish if Romania wins or draws against Belgium
• Belgium will not finish in the top two if they lose to Romania and Slovakia wins or draws against Ukraine; in this scenario, it would need to win its final match and try to advance as a third-place team (also winning third-place tiebreakers)
• Ukraine will not finish in the top two if they lose to Slovakia and Romania wins or draws against Belgium; in this scenario, it would need to win its final match and try to advance as a third-place team (also winning third-place tiebreakers)

Group F

• Turkey advances with a win over Portugal, and will win the group if Georgia wins or draws against Czechia
• Portugal advances with a win over Turkey, and will win the group if Czechia wins or draws against Georgia
• Czechia will be eliminated if they lose to Georgia and Turkey wins or draws against Portugal
• Georgia will be eliminated if they lose to Czechia and Portugal wins or draws against Turkey

Group tiebreakers

• Head-to-head result
• Head-to-head goal difference
• Head-to-head goals scored
• If three teams are tied on points, then the above criteria are applied again to just those teams. If teams still are tied after that, then the following tiebreakers are applied.
• Group goal difference
• Group goals scored
• A penalty shootout would ensue if the two teams in question are playing each other on the final day
• If the two teams don't play each other, then disciplinary points would be applied
• Rankings from Euro qualifiers

Third-place criteria

• Points
• Goal difference
• Goals scored
• Wins
• Disciplinary points
• Rankings from Euro qualifiers

Martin Rogers is a columnist for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @MRogersFOX and subscribe to the daily newsletter.